The goal-gradient hypothesis and coffee loyalty cards

What happened

Kivetz, Urminsky and Zheng published their study in 2006. They obtained 949 completed ten-stamp cards, recording about 10,000 coffee purchases, from a cafe within a large East Coast university. They also ran a field experiment with 108 customers of the same cafe, and analyzed data from an online song-rating program.

The psychological idea

Clark Hull proposed the goal-gradient hypothesis in 1932: the tendency to approach a goal grows as it gets closer. His best-known evidence came from rats running down a straight alley. The authors tested whether people show the same pattern with rewards, and proposed that what matters is the proportion of the original distance remaining.

In practice

Time between purchases fell by about 0.7 days, 20 percent, from the first interval to the last. Customers with transparent cards that earned no reward did not speed up, and their purchase times lengthened. In the field experiment, customers given a 12-stamp card with two bonus stamps finished the ten required purchases in 12.7 days on average, against 15.6 days for a plain ten-stamp card.

Why it mattered

It gave loyalty-scheme design a field test of an animal-learning idea, using real purchases. The authors draw implications for incentive systems, promotions and customer retention, which are their own reading of the findings.

Evidence behind the claims

• The paper credits the behaviorist Clark Hull with proposing the goal-gradient hypothesis in 1932, and describes Hull's rats in a straight alley running progressively faster as they neared the food.

  DocumentedSource: [1]Where: Introduction and the behaviorism section, pages 39 to 40

• The field study participants were customers of a cafe located within the campus of a large East Coast university; 949 completed ten-stamp cards covering approximately 10,000 coffee purchases were obtained.

  Experimental findingSource: [1]Where: The cafe reward programme, Method, page 42

• The mean difference between the first and last observed interpurchase times was 0.7 days (t = 2.6, p < .05), an average acceleration of 20 percent.

  Experimental findingSource: [1]Where: Results, page 43

• Customers carrying transparent cards that could not earn a reward showed deceleration, and customers from whom incomplete cards were bought back did not accelerate.

  Experimental findingSource: [1]Where: Analyses of transparent and buyback cards, page 46

• In a field experiment with 108 customers, a 12-stamp card with two bonus stamps was completed in 12.7 days on average, against 15.6 days for a 10-stamp card.

  Experimental findingSource: [1]Where: Field experiment of illusionary goal progress, page 48

• The cards shown in the paper's Figure 2 read Cafe Cappuccino at Columbia University, and the acknowledgements thank the manager of Columbia University Cafe Cappuccino; the method text does not name the cafe and the paper names no coffee chain.

  DocumentedSource: [1]Where: Figure 2 (page 42) and first-page acknowledgements

• A Chicago Booth Review article describes the coffee study as taking place at a single cafe on a large university campus and does not name Starbucks or any other chain.

  DocumentedSource: [2]Where: Article textChecked at page level

People involved

• Ran Kivetz. Author, Columbia Business School
• Oleg Urminsky. Author, Columbia Business School doctoral candidate at the time
• Yuhuang Zheng. Author, Fordham University
• Clark Hull. Proposed the goal-gradient hypothesis in 1932

In the Psy101 course

• OpenStax Psychology 2e, section 6.3: Operant ConditioningChapter 6, Learning. Concept. The section discusses this topic.Covers reinforcement, secondary reinforcers and schedules, the learning background for reward-approach behavior.
• OpenStax Psychology 2e, section 10.1: MotivationChapter 10, Emotion and Motivation. Context. The section discusses this topic.Discusses goals and extrinsic rewards in motivation.

This is course relevance only. It is not evidence for the historical or corporate claims on this page.See the full course map.

Sources and inspection

2 of 2 sources were opened and read at the level shown. A source marked as not verified supports no claim on this page by itself.

1. [1]
   The Goal-Gradient Hypothesis Resurrected: Purchase Acceleration, Illusionary Goal Progress, and Customer RetentionKivetz, R; Urminsky, O; Zheng, Y. Journal of Marketing Research (reprint hosted by Columbia Business School), 2006. Journal article. Primary source.Relevant text checkedRead pages 39 to 49 of the reprint as page images: abstract, Hull background, the cafe study method, Figure 2 and results, alternative explanations, the field experiment and the start of the music-rating study. Did not read the retention analysis or discussion.
2. [2]
   Going for the goalChicago Booth Review. Chicago Booth Review, Undated. News report. Secondary account.Relevant text checkedRead the magazine article as returned by the fetch tool. No date was shown, so the year listed is unconfirmed.

Access note: The method text leaves the cafe unnamed, but Figure 2 and the acknowledgements name a Columbia University campus cafe. No chain is named. Pages 39 to 49 were read.

Independent source review: Claude review agent, independent of the research agent, 2026-10-21. Verdict: pass-with-edits.

Related records and elsewhere on Psy101

• The endowed progress effect and the car wash loyalty card
• Starbucks Card Rewards and My Starbucks Rewards
• Tesco launches Clubcard
• American Airlines launches AAdvantage

• Psy101 People: Clark Hull